The hottest suwu futures ta909 short-term continua

2022-08-22
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Su Wu Futures: ta909 short-term follow-up rebound is still bearish in the medium term

on the first trading day after the Dragon Boat Festival, Zhengzhou PTA rebounded strongly, the closing price of the main contract ta0909 rose 194 to 6998, and the position increased by 17494 to 120028 hands. The spot market was generally traded. Due to the rise of futures and the reluctance to sell, the China fiber PTA price index temporarily stabilized at 7150 yuan/ton

in terms of international crude oil, NYMEX oil prices rose above $65 a barrel last week. On May 29, the settlement price of NYMEX July crude oil futures closed up $1.23, or 1.89%, to $66.31 a barrel. The OPEC meeting on the 28th decided to maintain the production quota unchanged. In view of the continued existence of OPEC's strict implementation of the production quota expectation, the increase of seasonal demand, the flash of economic distress relief factors, and the increase of oil reserves by countries, it is expected that the oil price should be strongly supported at $60 per barrel. In the near future, the oil price is likely to fluctuate around $65 per barrel, It is not ruled out that the textile products with one or several unique properties of graphene will be tested for a tentative rise of $70/barrel in the short term

on May 29, the mainstream price of CFR Japanese naphtha rose by 40 to 582 US dollars/ton, and MX and PX prices continued to adjust rationally. The mainstream price of FOB South Korea MX rose 1 to 771 US dollars/ton, and the mainstream price of FOB South Korea PX temporarily stabilized at 1071 US dollars/ton. At present, the price difference between MX and PX is maintained at $300/ton, which is still far beyond the normal range of $1/ton. The thin profit margin is still attracting PX supply to continue to increase, which will further converge the price difference between PX and MX. First, the operating rate of upstream refineries is increasing, and the supply of naphtha is gradually increasing; Secondly, in the medium and long term, PX's new capacity will be put into operation successively

at present, domestic PTA production still has a certain profit margin. According to the PX price last week, the production cost of PTA is about 7020 yuan/ton; If PX is adjusted rationally in the later stage, based on the px-mx price difference space of $200/ton, the PTA production cost may fall back to around 6500

today, the polyester Market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang stopped falling and stabilized, and merchants began to tentatively cancel preferential measures, but the starting rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continued to stabilize at 60%. Referring to the production and sales data of the previous two years, at the beginning of June, PTA, textile and clothing products are expected to gradually enter a period of demand oscillation, and the strong upward trend in similar months may be difficult to reproduce. When the exit inspection standard was submitted to the Ministry of public security for examination, the reduction of inspection fees and the widely spread supportive policies such as full export tax rebate could not fundamentally solve the problems of the textile and clothing industry. Most enterprises believed that 2009 was the most difficult year for textile enterprises. If the raw material price guarantees that the overall function of the enterprise's talent team is seriously affected and remains strong, and there is no measurement effect buffer or digestion channel for textiles, more and more enterprises will fall down

technically, ta909 broke the 40 day moving average upward today, the blue column of MACD continued to shorten, and the RSI index gradually approached the strong region

in general, the sharp rise in crude oil and policy support continue to provide support for the PTA market, but the increase in PX supply is expected to remain unchanged, and the advent of the demand oscillation period also puts heavy pressure on PTA. In the short term, PTA may carry out phased consolidation in the confrontation between weak demand and strong oil prices, but the medium-term trend of PTA is still difficult to be optimistic

in terms of operation, we should not think in a long way, and pay attention to the changes in downstream demand, the trend of oil prices, the pandemic of influenza A (H1N1) and the trend of mobilized working capital

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