The hottest suwu futures, Shanghai Jiaotong, may b

2022-08-12
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Su Wu Futures: it is difficult for Shanghai Jiao to carry out a deep correction

after rising for three consecutive weeks, the rising pace of Shanghai Jiao finally began to stop, and the main contract ru809 started a correction trend this week. The same is true of the spot market. The average spot transaction price of China rubber scr5/5# standard glue fell from 27567 yuan/ton last weekend to 27300 yuan/ton today. The main reasons are profit taking, the alleviation of the contradiction between supply and demand, inventory increase and other factors

1. Profit taking. Statistics show that from late April to a new high of 28495 yuan, Shanghai rubber has increased by about 35%; In this process, the internal and external rubber prices have continued to hit new highs, and the bulls have made a lot of profits. With the gradual decline of the beneficial effect of fundamentals, profit taking or backhand short selling has begun to occur

2. Deep cutting. The abnormal weather is the most important factor that causes the tight supply in the early stage, thus promoting the sharp rise of rubber price. From the current situation, the climatic factors are gradually digested. Although the tight supply situation at home and abroad has not been completely resolved, the market supply of new rubber will gradually increase

3. Consumption growth slowed down. From the perspective of demand, the growth rate of automobile production and sales may cool down in the third quarter, and the growth rate of natural rubber consumption may slow down slightly

4. Inventory increase. In terms of inventory, the natural rubber inventory in Shanghai increased for the first time in 15 weeks last week, with a slight increase of 380 tons to 17225 tons. This week, the inventory of Shanghai Rubber continued. BMW is studying the increase of lamp materials for the new generation of vehicles from 1735 tons to 18960 tons, which further pressured the futures price

according to the above analysis, out of the expectation of opening and closing bad in the later stage, Tianjiao will bear certain upward pressure in the period of important strategic opportunities for development. It is not suitable to be overly optimistic about the future market, and it is not suitable to be long in heavy positions. Will Shanghai Jiaotong start a deep correction? This possibility does not seem too great. Two factors continue to support the Shanghai glue price:

1. We can't expect too much about the slowdown in consumption. Although the growth rate of consumption will slow down to a certain extent, the automotive industry as a whole will maintain a good momentum and is unlikely to have major fluctuations. According to the statistics of China Automobile Industry Association, in May 2008, the automobile production was not easy to destroy 854100 vehicles, with a month on month decrease of 12.96% and a year-on-year increase of 20.20%; 835500 vehicles were sold, with a month on month decrease of 9.44% and a year-on-year increase of 17.04%

2. High oil prices are boosting rubber prices. At present, the international crude oil index is above $150, which will continue to raise the cost price of synthetic rubber. At present, the mainstream quotation of domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber in Shanghai is yuan/ton. In general, when its thermal insulation performance is slightly worse than that of foreign products, and the difference is less than 3000 yuan, consumers tend to use natural rubber. Facing the current strong crude oil price, it is almost out of reach to expect the decline of synthetic rubber. Therefore, it is unlikely that Shanghai Jiao will launch a sharp correction in the short term

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